Ferrex pointed out to us on RampancyHL an ie Magazine article of interest for those following the console wars. Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) has published a report with some details of the Xbox sales in the first week after launch:
The firm is projecting that Microsoft Corp. moved 370,000 Xbox units in the first two days that the console appeared at retail, and that around 810,000 software units were also sold, for a launch tie-in ratio of 2.2. Of the 21 titles available over the first two days, Halo took the top sales spot selling over 176,000 units.
††††Because of the number of Xbox bundles offered, Microsoft claimed approximately 57% of the Xbox software market, followed by Electronic Arts, Inc. (11%), Activision, Inc. (over 7%) and THQ Inc. and Take-Two Software, Inc. (under 1%). Microsoft is targeting 30% market share over the long term.
This is slightly higher than the 300,000 figure estimated earlier, but still far lower than the 700,000 figure quoted by Nintendo for their GameCube.
Comments
Anonymous (not verified)
xbox vs Gamecube
I aint gonna argue over which console is the better machine.
You already know that the Xbox OWNS the GC. GC sold more, but the GC cost less also.
ferrex
Clarification...
I think you may've misread the article... it sounds like 370,000 XBoxen were /sold/, not just moved to the retailers. They say that 810,000 software units were sold, and the attach rate was around 2.2 (I can't see it being much higher than that).
810,000 / 2.2 = 368181, give it take half a console
On the other hand, the 700,000 figure quoted by Nintendo was total units set to retailers.
This is all idle speculation and glee-mongering anyways. Two reports do not a complete picture make.
Cheers,
rex
narcogen
counterpoint
In reply to: Clarification...ferrex wrote on Thursday, 11/29/2001 - 2:11 pm:
: I think you may've misread the article... it sounds like
: 370,000 XBoxen were /sold/, not just moved to the retailers.
"Moved" is a quote from the article; I'm not interpreting it to mean one thing or the other. In fact, the headline I wrote says "sales" so I think it's pretty clear what the article means..
I'm just comparing the numbers we had from before; 300,000 estimated shipped Xboxes (number Goldman Sachs' estimate) compared to 740,000 shipped GameCubes, later sold out (source cube.ign.com) compared to this new number from CSFB.
Also, remember, CSFB was the source for the story that MS had hit their launch goal of 600,000 to 800,000 units... guess they were wrong about that, eh?
I know I'm comparing "shipped" units to "sold" units, but the fact remains that MS' biggest problem right now isn't necessarily selling units, but shipping them, since you've got a snowball's chance in hell of selling what you don't bring to market.
And no matter how you slice it, three hundred thousand anything is still slightly more than half seven hundred thousand something. And I've yet to see any stories confirming that any of the 100,000 per week replenishment shipments have actually arrived anywhere, or that Xbox availability is increasing.
That MS is selling most of what it ships is good; but, at best, they've shipped perhaps 400,000 units and possibly sold them all. That's still less in 15 days than the Cube sold in just one week, which was 500,000.
: They say that 810,000 software units were sold, and the
: attach rate was around 2.2 (I can't see it being much higher
: than that).
:
: 810,000 / 2.2 = 368181, give it take half a console
:
: On the other hand, the 700,000 figure quoted by Nintendo
: was total units set to retailers.
And then sold; that was updated later.
:
: This is all idle speculation and glee-mongering anyways.
: Two reports do not a complete picture make.
It's early, yes. That hardly makes it mere idle speculation, and I wish you'd cop to just a little bias on this point. :) Some products just don't recover from poor launch performances; look at the DreamCast.
MS priced the console when it thought that overwhelming horsepower and a couple of ace titles would carry an extra $100 on the pricetag; cheaper isn't always better. But then the economy went to crap, two planes flew into the trade towers and the US started bombing Afghanistan.
Bad timing, perhaps. But not necessarily poor strategy.
And as shallow as it sounds, that kind of stuff does affect how much money people spend around Christmastime, so perhaps the extra $100 in the pocket and a cute little Japanese game box looks a bit better in comparison to some people.
It certainly isn't Luigi's Mansion drawing them... or, at least, I HOPE it isn't...
Narcogen
Anonymous (not verified)
Re: counterpoint
In reply to: counterpointJust to clarify, the CSFB report, although it may not have been written particularly clearly, was referring to sell-thru, their estimate (and if you look at the NPD numbers posted on other sites) is 370k or so units sold thru, in the first week.
It should also be pointed out that this was a 3-day week, the box launched on the 15th, and the week (for reporting purposes) ended on the 17th.
By contrast, Nintendo claims (and it will remain an unsubstantiated claim until the NPD and TRST data comes out next week) is that they "almost sold out" on 575k (US) units in the full seven day week from the 18th thru the 24th.
I still expect that NGC will have sold slightly more units in it's first week than xbox (but not going to be anything like the 2:1 that Nintendo is claiming) because xbox had fewer units to sell in than NGC, but what matters (really) is how retailers are feeling about the platforms after holiday.
And to your Q about replenishment, there is replenishment to the channel literally ever day.
'mog
narcogen
further points
In reply to: Re: counterpointGothmog wrote on Thursday, 11/29/2001 - 7:29 pm:
: Just to clarify, the CSFB report, although it may not have
: been written particularly clearly, was referring to
: sell-thru, their estimate (and if you look at the NPD
: numbers posted on other sites) is 370k or so units sold
: thru, in the first week.
Granted. Except I haven't seen any NPD or TRST numbers anywhere.
Care to URL me so I can monitor? :)
:
: It should also be pointed out that this was a 3-day week,
: the box launched on the 15th, and the week (for reporting
: purposes) ended on the 17th.
Actually, the article refers to it as two days, and we quoted it as such. The problem with comparing short weeks, of course, is as you cite below...
:
: By contrast, Nintendo claims (and it will remain an
: unsubstantiated claim until the NPD and TRST data comes out
: next week) is that they "almost sold out" on 575k (US) units
: in the full seven day week from the 18th thru the 24th.
:
... that Nintendo's numbers are "unofficial".
Of course, MS itself (to my knowledge) has released no numbers, so that in itself seems to possibly indicate something.
: I still expect that NGC will have sold slightly more units
: in it's first week than xbox (but not going to be anything
: like the 2:1 that Nintendo is claiming) because xbox had
: fewer units to sell in than NGC, but what matters (really)
: is how retailers are feeling about the platforms after
: holiday.
Why is that what matters? Unless what you mean is that they'll have subjectively a better idea from customer behavior what the numbers mean-- that GC sold a lot but a lot were available and demand was actually soft, and that demand for the Xbox was high and that sales were low because of restricted availability (which is certainly possible, as I've pointed out in nearly every item on this story).
Of course, it's also possible that demand is equal or even favors the GC, and that this is what is being reflected in the sales figures. Like I mentioned before, we won't know until Xbox availability is no longer constrained-- and if both companies followed their replenishment schedules, the GC units having passed through the channel will still be higher and remain higher.
:
: And to your Q about replenishment, there is replenishment
: to the channel literally ever day.
I'm not talking about distributor - retailer replenishment, but manufacturer - distributor replenishment. And I don't have any insider info here.
What I've read in the stories is quotes of Nintendo reps saying "we have shipped another 125,000 units" and stories quoting MS reps saying "we plan to ship 100,000 units".
Beyond that, I don't know how to interpret it-- and several other sites have noted that no retailer has gone on record saying they've received a replenishment shipment of Xboxes. Perhaps they have; but I'm not in the US to be able to take a trip down to a retailer and ask.
Narcogen
Anonymous (not verified)
Re: further points
In reply to: further pointsSome interesting data here. Somewhat skewed by the mix of stores, but speaks to the replenishment issue
http://forums.teamxbox.com/showthread.php?s=4415bcfd576247ccc713be2bce85...
Anonymous (not verified)
Re: further points
In reply to: Re: further pointsGothmog wrote on Friday, 11/30/2001 - 2:58 pm:
: Some interesting data here. Somewhat skewed by the mix of
: stores, but speaks to the replenishment issue
:
:
I just have 1 question? Are you guys saying that the Cube is better than the Xbox?
Anonymous (not verified)
Re: counterpoint
In reply to: Re: counterpointNintendo also released a press release on the 19th claiming to have sold $100M in GameCube related merchandise.
I'm going to be generous to the XBox camp and assume the average buyer buys two games and a controller along with his console. That's still almost 300K units sold in one day.
kalis
the mythical x-head stard
In reply to: Clarification...GC was on sale a few days before it's official release date. I can look for urls if you like, but you can search at slashdot as easily as i can.